Summer Movie League: Week 4

Summer Movie League: Week 4

Ken Jones

OnScreen Chief Film Critic

Recap:

Week 4 saw no one seriously challenge Beauty and the Beast for the throne atop the box office.  It did a decent job retaining its audience, only dropping 48% off its opening weekend numbers to $90.4 million on its 2nd weekend.  That pushes its total to $319 and climbing, and with a stabilized T-meter of 70% that is good for $223.3 million, meaning it is all but certain to cap.  For it to cap at $250 million, it needs to take in about $30 million more in box office receipts, something it will achieve by Friday at the latest.  For now, Beauty and the Beast has pushed me into 1st place, though with Joe about to have his fourth movie released, I suspect that will be short-lived.

There were two new releases this weekend, both owned by Joe.  Power Rangers came in 2nd place with just over $40 million.  Most projections were in the high 30s, so that’s a good number.  It also maintained its Rotten Tomatoes score, where it currently stands at 48% with 101 reviews.  It’s possible that more reviews could trickle in and move the needle a percentage point in either direction.  I saw it as low as 44% on Saturday, so there could still be some wiggle possible with that number.  Life, the sci-fi feature with Jake Gyllenahaal and Ryan Reynolds debuted in 4th place, underperforming slightly with only $12.5 million.  It’s received mixed-to-slightly-positive reviews, generating a 66% on the T-meter.  I saw Life myself and had two friends who went to see Power Rangers at the same time Sunday night.  I liked Life enough, and wouldn’t mind seeing it find an audience over the next few weeks, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it doesn’t make much noise and drops over 50% in its 2nd weekend.  The report I heard regarding Power Rangers from my friends was that it hit them right in the nostalgic feels in all its cheesy glory, so it could have some legs.  Logan climbed above $200 million, bringing its total up to $185.5 for Joe.  Kong: Skull Island crossed the $100 million mark for Chris, as it now stands at $133 million and counting. 

Preview:

This weekend has no less than three films seeing a release, and a 4th is getting a wide release.  Ghost in the Shell is the big name release, yet another movie on Joe’s roster.  When I started writing this, there were no reviews and I had read that reviews were supposed to be embargoed until Thursday, which is almost always a bad sign, especially for a blockbuster, as it typically means the studio knows it’s got a lemon on its hands and wants to limit the bad press before the release as much as possible.  However, a few reviews have already trickled out, 7 in fact, and the T-meter is 71%.  So maybe things aren’t as dire as suspected.

Meanwhile, The Boss Baby has taken a downward turn while The Zookeeper’s Wife has possibly righted the ship.  The Boss Baby is down to 29% on the T-meter with 24 reviews in so far.  Parents are likely to take their kids to see this, so it should do mildly strong business and could compete with Ghost in the Shell for #2 for the weekend, but estimates look to be somewhere in the $30-$32 million range.  Bad reviews could push them slightly lower.  After starting out with a 20% T-meter through 5 reviews, The Zookeeper’s Wife has rebounded to 62% through 13 reviews.  That’s an impressive turnaround, but there is no a lot of buzz for this film.  I doubt it will even crack the Top 5 for the weekend.  Finally, T2: Trainspotting expands wide after a few weeks in limited release.  It’s stayed at 76% for a while now.  I suspect it will do about the same amount of business as The Zookeeper’s Wife

Beyond this coming weekend, six reviews are out now for Smurfs: The Lost Village and it has a 33% on the T-meter.  I don’t suspect it to maintain even that number.  Atomic Blonde is now up to 75% with 16 reviews.  There has been a release date change for Baby Driver, the much-hyped Edgar Wright film coming out of SXSW; it has moved up from August 11th to June 28th.  This puts it up against Despicable Me 3 and the Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House.  That’s also two weeks after Cars 3, a week after Transformers: The Last Knight, and a week before Spider-Man: Homecoming.  On the plus side, that’s essentially 4th of July weekend, with the 4th falling on a Tuesday.  I don’t expect it to become a juggernaut with all of that competition, but I don’t think it will be lost in the shuffle and should make more money than it would have made in August, even though there would be less competition in August.

Standings:

1. Ken - $221.3 million
$41 Beauty and the Beast (3/17) - (70% X $319 = $223.3)
$7 Boss Baby (3/31) (29%) (24 reviews)
$11 Baywatch (5/26)
$5 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (6/2)
$0 Baby Driver (6/28) - (-$2 million penalty) (100%) (21 reviews)
$1 Bad Dads (7/14)
$1 Girls Trip (7/21)

2. Joe - $207.1 million
$28 Logan (3/3) - (92% X $201.6 = $185.5)
$5 Power Rangers (3/24) – (48% X $40.3 = $19.3)
$2 Life (3/24) – (66% X $12.5 = $8.3)
$12 Ghost in the Shell (3/31) – (71%) )(7 reviews)
$17 Wonder Woman (6/2)
$4 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (7/21)
$0 Atomic Blonde (7/28) - (-$6 million penalty) (75%) (16 reviews)

3. Chris - $104.4 million
$10 Kong: Skull Island (3/10) - (78% X $133.8 = $104.4)
$5 Snatched (5/12)
$8 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (5/26)
$12 The Mummy (6/9)
$8 The House (6/30)
$22 Dunkirk (7/21)
$4 The Dark Tower (7/28)

4. Tim - $0.5 million
$1 T2: Trainspotting 2 (3/17) - (76% X 0.6 = 0.5)
$1 Gifted (4/7)
$26 The Fate of the Furious (4/14)
$20 Cars 3 (6/16)
$20 War for the Planet of the Apes (7/14)
$2 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (7/28)

5. Greg - $0
$39 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (5/5)
$6 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (5/12)
$14 Alien: Covenant (5/19)
$4 Rock That Body (6/16)
$6 Transformers: The Last Knight (6/23)
$1 The Emoji Movie (8/4)

6. Paula - $0
$1 All Nighter (3/24) - (0% X $0 = $0)
$1 The Zookeeper's Wife (3/31) – (62%) (13 reviews)
$2 Smurfs: The Lost Village (4/7) – (33%) (6 reviews)
$3 The Circle (4/28)
$31 Despicable Me 3 (6/30)
$31 Spider-Man: Homecoming (7/7)
$1 Annabelle 2 (8/11)

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