Winners and Losers of ‘Top Gun: Maverick’s Box Office Success
Greg Ehrhardt, OnScreen Blog Columnist
‘Top Gun: Maverick’ has a shot, as of this writing, to make a billion dollars at the global box office, joining 49 other movies in the feat. Many people predicted box office success due to being a legacyquel of a popular, quintessential 80s pop culture movie, and Tom Cruise’s involvement. The realism of which the movie was shot (something Tom Cruise legendarily insists on now in almost all his work, including ridiculous movies like “The Mummy”) also contributed to the buzz.
Although this is a legacyquel, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ potentially joining the billion-dollar club is unique: of the 49 movies currently on the list, there’s only three movies on this list that’s not a comic book movie, animated, a 3rd or greater installment in a franchise, or a live action remake of an animated movie: Avatar, Titanic, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone.
That’s it, that’s the list.
‘Top Gun: Maverick’ may make the list, and, although it’s a legacyquel, it’s a legacyquel that in many ways stands on its own plot wise (I never saw the original, and I didn’t feel I was missing anything).
(Top Gun: Maverick will be available to stream for free on Paramount Plus on December 22nd. Sign up for Paramount Plus here, we get a small commission for any sign-ups.)
Hollywood is surely taking notes from this movie’s success, and that can be both good and bad. Certain types of movies will be given a 2nd look, certain stars and directors will get their choice of scripts going forward, and some people will be pushed aside to make way for the movies that will attempt to replicate the success of ‘Top Gun: Maverick’’.
Let’s break it all down:
Winner: Tom Cruise
This is sort of counter-intuitive, seeing as Tom Cruise has more money than God and entered this movie as still a Hollywood titan.
But his star’s shine was fading heading into 2022, if you looked closely.
Sure, Mission: Impossible is still a great franchise, and he hasn’t lost a step as an action star. But he wasn’t drawing crowds the way he used to for the last few years.
Look at his filmography since 2013:
American Made ($51M)
The Mummy ($80M)
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back ($59)
Edge of Tomorrow ($100M)
Oblivion ($89M)
Jack Reacher ($55M)
Rock of Ages ($39M)
He had a couple solid hits, but a lot of duds. Mission: Impossible was keeping him alive, and now ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ demonstrated that he can still be in a movie with juice. Don’t forget, he didn’t just star in the movie, he was the driving force behind all the realism in the movie, which brings us to our next winner:
Winner: Realism in Movies
I don’t think audiences want their movies to be documentaries, but, in this age of CGI action, having a movie bring you as much into the scene as possible is a great way in 2022 to enhance the theatre experience. I would count on Hollywood looking for ways to make their movies more realistic going forward (maybe that includes finding actual wizards to produce spells to fly across different multiverses)
Loser: Miles Teller
As I wrote in my review of the film, this movie was tailor made for Miles Teller to shine as a star, to win over audiences with his charisma. And, well, sorry, he failed.
He’s fine in this movie, but once again, he’s an actor that critics and movie connoisseurs love, but audiences just go “meh” over. You won’t find many (if any) people leaving the theater gushing over Teller’s performance.
Loser: All scripts on ‘The Black List’
For those who don’t know, ‘The Black List’, according to Wikipedia, is an annual survey of the "most-liked" motion picture screenplays not yet produced”. Typically, these are original screenplays (but not always), with original premises. For those who saw the movie, you won’t be shocked to know that Top Gun: Maverick was umm not on ‘The Black List’.
I’ll go one step further: it was a bad script. The characters were not developed, the reoccurring themes of the movie were forced and clunky, and the overall plot structure was pedestrian at best.
Did any of that matter to enjoy the movie? Nope. But you can bet a F-18 fighter jet that Hollywood is not going to prioritize script doctoring and re-writes and look more to securing legacyquels and authentic special effects. Which brings us to our next winner:
Winner: Legacyquels
Given Hollywood’s insistence on bankable IP, legacyquels were never fully going away, but its possible that if there were a couple unexpected bombs, they would be given far smaller budgets (and thus more budget dollars given to other types of projects).
Well, if this becomes the 50th billion dollar movie, we can bet Hollywood executives are like “Fast track me a Gremlins Legacyquel!”
(Likely they are saying this already, because even if Top Gun didn’t make a single dollar past where it sits now, it’s a resounding success).
Legacyquels are easy marketing fodder given the public’s love for nostalgia, especially if the legacy characters show up to train today’s whippersnappers to show them how to be a “real” hero (which Top Gun: Maverick did in spades).
Legacyquels however, have become a lazy form of storytelling, which leads us to the next big loser of Top Gun: Maverick’s success:
Loser: Oscar ratings
We won’t get into our usual diatribe about how the Oscars requires physical altercations to stay relevant, but one contention I think is inarguable is that we have a surge of “Oscar Bait” movies who are not even trying to make money at the box office, combined with big budget movies who are exclusively catering to the comic book/franchise audience to the point that getting any best picture buzz is unlikely.
‘Top Gun: Maverick’ is the rare crowd-pleasing movie that all types of audiences could enjoy, but, as we discussed previously, the script is so bad it won’t get any Best Picture or acting category nominations.
Legacyquels won’t help this trend, because, the focus lately has been on scratching the audiences’ nostalgia itch, even if its incoherent with the plot. Which brings us to our next and final loser:
Loser: Audiences who like fresh and new content
I was hoping after ‘Matrix Resurrections’ and the latest Scream movie that legacyquels were dying a slow death. Both movies viewed its existence with utter contempt, leaving audiences no choices but to feel similarly.
‘Matrix Resurrections’ had a plot and script that seemed to actively make fun of audience expectations for nostalgia bait scenes, only to gratuitously include near shot-for-shot recreations of classic Matrix scenes in the movies. It is pretty obvious this was probably a result of studio interference and resulted in a movie with wildly mixed messaging about the toxic need for audiences to relive the past. It’s a shame, because there’s an original story to be had if the Matrix were to be rebooted after a long gap and what the machines would have learned from their previous errors (and what that says about present day society).
Ditto for the new Scream movie. Simply put, there was just no need to revisit the same exact house that was the setting for the climax of the original Scream installment. Their only fresh spin on it was using Jack Quaid to make fun of reddit nerds, who they ultimately wrote the script to satisfy (and don’t get me started on the gratuitous, senseless inclusion of Skeet Ulrich into this movie).
Legacyquels sacrifice good story for fan service and getting more of them will not make audiences happy in the long term.
It was wonderful to have a movie like Top Gun: Maverick that satisfied all types of audiences. The marketplace badly needed such a movie. Unfortunately, I’m not optimistic Hollywood will learn the right lessons to capitalize on this long term.
You can follow my movie commentary @onscreenblog.