When the Tonys Got It Wrong: A Look Back at the Best Musical Upsets That Still Sting
by Chris Peterson
Every June, theatre fans gather—whether in person, online, or just emotionally—with bated breath to watch the Tony Awards. It’s the night Broadway puts on its best dress, pours the champagne, and pretends everything’s fine backstage. And most of the time, the Best Musical trophy goes to the right show. The one that captured hearts, broke ground, or defined the moment.
But sometimes? Sometimes the Tony voters get it flat-out wrong.
We’re not talking about close calls or personal preference here. We’re talking about years when the winning musical feels like the answer to a question nobody asked. Years where time has only made the mistake more obvious.
Let’s take a walk through the archives and talk about the wins that still don’t sit right. (And no, we’re not listing Avenue Q over Wicked here, they got that one right.)
1998 – The Lion King over Ragtime
I get it. The Lion King was visually groundbreaking. Julie Taymor did things no one had ever seen before on a Broadway stage. But Ragtime? That show had scope, it had substance, it had heart. It told the American story in a way that was raw, gorgeous, and painfully relevant. The score by Ahrens and Flaherty is one of the richest of the last 50 years. Lion King dazzled, but Ragtime broke your heart(and will again this year at Lincoln Center).
1991 – The Will Rogers Follies over almost everything else
I’ve said this before, but this win feels like the Tonys were clinging to the past while the future was pounding on the door. Will Rogers was big and shiny and built for the old-school crowd. But Miss Saigon was a global hit with an emotional punch. The Secret Garden had a lush, literary soul. Once on This Island was inventive, intimate, and unforgettable. All three of those shows have aged beautifully. And despite constant pushback from the older generations of commenters, The Will Rogers Follies feels like something you find on a forgotten cast album shelf at a thrift store.
2007 – Spring Awakening over Grey Gardens
This one hurts a little. Spring Awakening was powerful. It spoke to a generation. It launched stars. But Grey Gardens? That show was something else. It was eerie, elegant, and completely unique. Christine Ebersole gave one of the greatest Broadway performances this century. The show was weird in the best way, unafraid to sit in its own silence, and haunting in how much it said about family, fame, and fading away. Sometimes the flash wins out over the finesse.
1988 – The Phantom of the Opera over Into the Woods
Hot take? But here’s the thing. Phantom has had an unbelievable run. It’s a spectacle. It has fans all over the world, including me. But Into the Woods is one of the most layered and brilliant musicals ever written. It’s smart, it’s emotional, it’s endlessly interpretable. It takes fairy tales and turns them into something real and devastating. Sondheim and Lapine were doing something much deeper than chandelier drops. Broadway went with the blockbuster. But the soul of the season belonged to the woods.
1972 – Two Gentlemen of Verona over Follies
This one feels borderline criminal. I wasn’t alive in ‘72 to experience these shows or get a feel of Tony voters back then, but Two Gentlemen is barely remembered. Follies is a titan. Sondheim's score, the concept, the performances—it all added up to something Broadway still hasn’t matched. It was about nostalgia, aging, memory, and regret. It was a gut-punch in sequins. And they gave the Tony to a Shakespeare rock musical that nobody’s done in decades. Still unbelievable.
2010 – Memphis over Fela! and American Idiot
Memphis was fine. A crowd-pleaser. Nothing wrong with it. But Fela!? That was a show that shook the room. It was bold, rhythmic, political, and unforgettable. American Idiot brought punk to Broadway and somehow made it feel theatrical without watering it down. Either of those shows would have signaled that the Tonys were ready to reward risk. Instead, they went safe. Again.
1984 – La Cage aux Folles over Sunday in the Park with George
La Cage is lovely. It really is. It was important and timely and full of heart. But Sunday in the Park was revolutionary. It was unlike anything before it. It asked questions most musicals never even consider. It was about art, legacy, isolation, obsession. It changed the way musicals could look and feel and sound. Sondheim and Lapine gave us something ahead of its time. And the Tonys weren’t ready for it.
1999 – Fosse over Parade
Let me be clear. Fosse was not a new musical. It was a revue. A greatest-hits compilation of one man’s career. And yes, it was spectacular to look at. But Parade? Parade was an original, harrowing, heartbreaking piece of theatre. It had a blistering score by Jason Robert Brown and an urgent, terrifying true story. It was about injustice, prejudice, and the dangers of silence. And it lost to a clip show. That’s all I’ll say.
These are the years that keep theatre fans up at night. The nights when the Tonys looked away from brilliance and handed the biggest prize to something safer, simpler, or shinier. And yes, awards aren’t everything. But they’re part of history. And when they get it wrong, we remember.
Let me know what other years still haunt you. I promise, you’re not alone.