"Broadway hasn't had a mega-hit since Hamilton" - Yes, There's Reasons for That
by Chris Peterson, OnStage Blog Founder
Broadway Producer Jeffrey Seller recently pointed out in an interview with The Stage that there hasn’t been another mega-hit to land on Broadway since Hamilton. He’s absolutely right.
It’s been nearly ten years since Hamilton (which Seller produced) exploded in NYC, and I think it’s safe to say: we’ve been waiting for the next one ever since. Not just a hit. Not just a Tony winner. A phenomenon. A show that punches through pop culture, sells out for years, spawns national tours, sells cast albums like hotcakes, wins Pulitzers, dominates Halloween costumes, and gets name-dropped by people who’ve never even been to a Broadway show.
And yet… nothing.
Yes, we’ve had some wonderful shows in the years since. Hadestown is gorgeously crafted. Six is a clever, electric concert in a box. Kimberly Akimbo is the definitive musical of the 2020s. But none of them have broken out the way Hamilton did. None have become a cultural event. None have truly redefined the landscape.
So what gives?
Why haven’t we had another mega-hit musical in nearly a decade? Why hasn’t Broadway birthed something that dominates the conversation the way Hamilton, Wicked, The Producers, Rent, or Phantom once did?
Well, let’s unpack it because the answer isn’t just one thing. It’s a perfect storm of industry realities, creative risks, and cultural shifts. Let’s start with the obvious:
1. The price tag is a monster
Hamilton, back in 2015, cost around $12.5 million to mount on Broadway. That’s a lot, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to today’s budgets.
Now? You’re looking at $22 million to $30 million just to get a musical on its feet. And we’re not talking giant sets or arena tours here — even relatively modest productions are creeping into that upper range. Between union wages, rental fees, marketing campaigns, insurance, and post-COVID protocol expenses, the floor has risen, and the ceiling has skyrocketed.
That kind of budget doesn't just demand a good show. It demands a hit. Which means producers are becoming risk-averse, chasing safer bets — adaptations, pop songbooks, familiar IP — and steering away from untested voices or truly out-there concepts. The result? Shows that might be good but rarely feel groundbreaking.
And let’s not forget: with those higher costs come higher ticket prices. That means fewer young people, fewer spontaneous purchases, and more pressure to deliver a “worth-it” experience from the first preview.
2. The Material Isn’t Tapping the Vein
What made Hamilton a phenomenon wasn’t just the technical brilliance or historical remix. It was urgency. That show walked into a Broadway theatre and shouted, “This is what America looks like. This is who we are. This is who we were.” It felt essential.
Some recent shows have had that spark (A Strange Loop, for one), but most haven’t captured the same sense of cultural moment. AND THAT’S OKAY — not everything needs to be a revolution. But let’s be honest: most of what’s made it to Broadway lately feels... safe. Entertaining, sure. Clever, often. But not “call your friends immediately” exciting.
There’s a fine line between building on what works and copying it. Hamilton made history sing. A dozen shows since have tried rapping the Constitution and hoped we wouldn’t notice the difference.
3. Audiences Are Different Now — And Harder to Reach
Back in 2015, you could reasonably count on tourists, school trips, and younger fans to fill seats. You could take a chance on something unconventional and still find a crowd. But now? Between COVID fallout, inflation, and shifts in entertainment habits, everything’s different. Ticket prices are higher than ever, with premium seats topping $400 in some cases. For many, Broadway is no longer an accessible treat — it’s an investment.
Younger audiences, in particular, aren’t showing up the way they used to. Not because they don’t care — but because their wallets are thinner and their cultural diets are different. They’re finding stories on TikTok, YouTube, and in digital spaces where Broadway is either a punchline or a niche obsession. Add in the fact that Broadway marketing hasn’t caught up to how Gen Z consumes media, and you’ve got a disconnect that’s hurting shows before they even open.
And let’s not ignore regional theater and streaming: people have more ways than ever to see musicals from home. That’s great for access — but rough on box office.
4. There’s No Lin-Manuel-Type Unicorn at the Moment
Let’s be honest: Lin-Manuel Miranda was lightning in a bottle. He didn’t just write Hamilton — he starred in it, promoted it, remixed it, memed it, and made it his. He brought hip-hop to Broadway in a way that didn’t feel like appropriation or gimmickry. And he had a team that gave him room to build without watering him down.
Right now, there are plenty of brilliant musical minds out there — but they’re rarely given that same runway. Most are boxed into development hell, stuck workshopping the same show for a decade because the risk of greenlighting something bold is just too high. And even if someone does have that same spark? Getting the public to notice in a media landscape that’s louder and more fractured than ever? Almost impossible without a viral moment, a movie star, or a minor miracle.
Plus, Broadway doesn’t elevate new talent the way it used to. When a show breaks through, we celebrate the brand — not the creators. That hurts long-term investment in future visionaries.
5. We’re All Waiting for the “Next Hamilton” — and That’s a Problem
The cruelest irony is this: the bar that Hamilton set is now a blockade for everything that follows. New musicals aren’t just expected to be good — they’re expected to be seismic. And if they’re not the next revolution? They’re dismissed. That’s unfair to the artists, and toxic to the process.
The truth is, the next mega-hit probably won’t look like Hamilton. It might be a scrappy cult show that builds momentum slowly. It might be a family drama with two actors and a piano. It might be entirely sung, or not sung at all. We won’t recognize it until it slaps us in the face and says, “I matter.”
But if we’re so obsessed with repeating history, we’re going to miss the future. We’ll scare off the next Lin. We’ll overlook the next game-changer. We’ll fund safe shows and wonder why they aren’t iconic.
So… where does that leave us?
Honestly? Still waiting. But maybe the wait is a good thing. It gives us time to reflect. To remember that Hamilton didn’t come out of nowhere — it came from years of nurturing a voice, assembling the right collaborators, and taking a massive risk on something new.
Yes, we have not had a mega-hit since Hamilton. But that doesn’t mean we’ve failed. It means we haven’t stopped reaching.
The next one’s coming. Maybe not tomorrow. Maybe not in a theater near you. But when it arrives, it won’t ask permission. It won’t fit the mold. It’ll demand attention — and it’ll change everything again.