It’s Tony Time: Let’s Predict the Chaos
by Chris Peterson
If you love Broadway, this Sunday is your Super Bowl. The 2025 Tony Awards are finally here. Whether you're watching for the performances, the speeches, the fashion, or the inevitable social media discourse when the wrong show wins, one thing's for sure: it's going to be a night.
This season has been one of the most thrilling (and refreshingly unpredictable) in years. There’s no one show sweeping every category. Instead, we’ve got dark comedies, robot romances, overdue legends, solo transformations, and drag Lincoln all competing for attention. And honestly? That’s how I like it.
So before the lights dim and the envelopes are opened, here’s a full breakdown of every category and my predictions on who’ll walk away with a trophy and who might just get played off stage.
Let’s dive in.
Best Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
It’s weird, it’s gentle, it’s quietly devastating, and it might just be the best original musical Broadway has seen in years. Maybe Happy Ending doesn’t shout to be noticed. It earns your heart with every soft, strange, beautifully human moment between two outdated helper robots who somehow feel more alive than half the characters on stage this season.
Best Play: Oh, Mary!
No play this season stirred up conversation quite like Oh, Mary! It’s absurd, messy, unhinged, and absolutely brilliant. While Purpose would have gotten my vote, Cole Escola’s take on Mary Todd Lincoln feels like a fever dream that shouldn’t work, and yet it does, beautifully. Underneath the camp and chaos is a razor-sharp script with real emotional weight. It’s the rare comedy that actually takes risks and pays off. Love it or not, you won’t forget it.
Best Revival of a Musical: Sunset Boulevard
This category is stacked, but Sunset Boulevard roared back with something the others didn’t — danger. Jamie Lloyd turned it into a haunting, expressionist nightmare, and Nicole Scherzinger delivered a blistering, career-redefining Norma Desmond that no one saw coming. It’s bold, it’s divisive, and it’s exactly the kind of revival that reminds you why the show mattered in the first place. The Tonys love a risk that pays off, and this one paid off in spades.
Best Revival of a Play: Eureka Day
This play about a progressive school board torn apart by a vaccine debate is funny, biting, and uncomfortably familiar. It’s a revival that feels brand new, not because of a flashy concept or big-name cast, but because the material hits harder now than it did when it premiered. Smart, timely, and surprisingly emotional, Eureka Day is exactly what this category should reward.
Best Director of a Musical: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)
Michael Arden directs with his whole heart, and Maybe Happy Ending is proof. Every moment feels intentional, every beat lands just right. He takes a story about two obsolete helper robots and turns it into something soul-crushingly human. It’s gentle, it’s gorgeous, and it’s masterfully directed. This one’s his.
Best Director of a Play: Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!)
What Sam Pinkleton pulled off with Oh, Mary! is no small feat. He took a completely unhinged, laugh-out-loud script and gave it structure without ever sanding down its edges. Every bizarre moment is grounded in intention; every beat hits because of his clarity of vision. It’s not just good direction. It’s masterful control of theatrical chaos.
Best Leading Actress in a Musical: Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop! The Musical)
Everyone’s been talking about the Audra vs. Nicole showdown — and yes, both are giving incredible performances. But here’s what no one’s factoring in: they’re splitting the vote. Same with Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty. And when that happens, a third door opens. That door leads straight to Jasmine Amy Rogers.
She’s been the heart and soul of Boop! The Musical since day one. It’s a show that lives or dies on its lead, and Jasmine doesn’t just carry it — she soars. I’ve talked to voters. A lot of them. And over and over, I kept hearing the same thing: “I voted for Jasmine.” If she wins (and I might be the only one who thinks she will), it won’t be a fluke. It’ll be a well-earned coronation.
Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)
Let’s be honest, this category has been a bit all over the place. But Criss’s performance in Maybe Happy Ending isn’t loud or flashy. It’s tender, detailed, and absolutely heartbreaking. He plays a robot, sure, but somehow gives the most human performance on Broadway this season. And in a show that’s gaining real momentum, he’s the emotional core that makes it all land.
Best Leading Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray)
Let’s not overthink this. Sarah Snook gave the performance of the year. Period. Snook doesn’t just rise to the challenge, she obliterates it. She’s delivering character after character with precision and truth, keeping the entire room locked in for ninety minutes straight. She already won the Olivier for this. She won the Drama Desk. She’s going to win the Tony. And she should.
Best Leading Actor in a Play: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!)
Escola’s take on Mary Todd Lincoln is completely unhinged in the best way possible. It’s weird, it’s campy, it’s smart, and somehow, underneath all of it, it’s deeply moving. Escola walks the tightrope between chaos and control like they were born on it. And they make it look effortless. This isn’t your typical Tony-winning role. And that’s exactly why it’s going to win. Voters love a breakout. They love a surprise. And they love when someone reinvents the rules. Cole Escola did all three.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Gracie Lawrence (Just in Time)
This category is full of powerhouses, but Gracie Lawrence is the one who snuck up and stole the show. Her comedic timing is razor sharp, her vocals are killer, and she brings a spark to the show that makes everything around her brighter. She’s the kind of performer who turns a supporting part into something unforgettable. And I’ve heard from more than a few voters that her name was an easy check. This is the kind of surprise win that won’t feel like a surprise at all.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Jak Malone (Operation Mincemeat)
Jak Malone isn’t just in Operation Mincemeat — he’s the heartbeat of the whole thing. He’s already won the Olivier Award for this role, and ever since Operation Mincemeat crossed the pond, critics and audiences have been calling him the standout of the show.
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day)
Jessica Hecht has quietly built one of the most respected stage careers in New York, and in Eureka Day, she delivers the kind of performance that voters love to reward — smart, specific, and completely devastating.
Best Book of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending — Book by Will Aronson & Hue Park
For me, this one’s not even close.Maybe Happy Ending quietly delivered the most thoughtful, emotionally layered book of the year. Will Aronson and Hue Park crafted a story that feels both futuristic and deeply human, about two helper robots discovering connection, love, and what it means to be obsolete. It’s a small show with a giant heart, and this book is one of the main reasons it works.
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics): Dead Outlaw — Erik Della Penna & David Yazbek
I don’t think Dead Outlaw is going to be walking away with a ton of Tonys tonight. But I think it’s going to win this one. And honestly, it should. David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna built a score that doesn’t sound like anything else on Broadway right now. It’s twangy and twisted, rooted in rockabilly and Americana, and somehow it makes a musical about an outlaw’s corpse feel like the coolest thing onstage all year.
Best Choreography: Christopher Gattelli (Death Becomes Her)
The movement in this show is as campy, unhinged, and jaw-droppingly precise as the story itself. From the opening number that kicks the door down to the gravity-defying gags, this is choreography that leans all the way in. This is the kind of Tony win that makes perfect sense the moment you see it live.
Best Orchestrations: Maybe Happy Ending — Will Aronson
Look, I’m not an orchestrations expert. I’m not going to pretend I can name every instrument in the pit or break down how a motif gets developed. But I do know how something feels — and Maybe Happy Ending feels like magic. Will Aronson’s orchestrations are delicate and thoughtful, never overpowering the story, always in perfect sync with the emotions onstage.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending — Dane Laffrey & George Reeve
Dane Laffrey and George Reeve didn’t build a spectacle, they built a world. The apartment in Maybe Happy Ending feels lived in, worn down, and quietly beautiful. Every shelf, every shadow, every soft little light is doing the work. This is the kind of scenic design that doesn’t scream for attention. It just settles into your chest and stays there.
Best Scenic Design of a Play: Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Miriam Buether
What I feel will be the first of many technical and design awards for Stranger Things. Miriam Buether’s design is a full-on theatrical thrill ride. We’re talking disappearing sets, swirling portals, mind-bending projections, and scene changes that feel more like magic tricks than transitions. It’s a blockbuster onstage, and the set is the star.
Best Costume Design of a Musical: Boop! The Musical — Gregg Barnes
Barnes’ designs are the beating heart of that technicolor world, turning every scene into a carnival of movement, mood, and memory. One moment the stage is smoky monochrome, the next it bursts into rainbow brilliance as the ensemble flips from cartoon reality to vibrant New York life.
Best Costume Design of a Play: Oh, Mary! — Holly Pierson
Pierson took traditional gowns and turned them into shorthand for Mary Todd Lincoln’s wild spirit: campy, chaotic, theatrical. These designs don’t just cover actors—they elevate every joke, every stumble, every emotional moment. It’s bold work that makes the play come alive. And this one deserves to win.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Sunset Boulevard — Jack Knowles
This category usually rewards visuals that wow, and Sunset Boulevard has them in spades. The way lights slice through, spotlighting human desperation and faded glamour—it’s unforgettable, and voters know it.
Best Lighting Design of a Play: Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Jon Clark
If you're the kind of person who judges a play by how it makes your jaw hit the floor, then Jon Clark’s lighting design for Stranger Things is your gold medal. This isn’t subtle glow, it’s full-on supernatural atmosphere. And when voters see work like this, they know it’s on a different level. For me, it's the only choice.
Best Sound Design of a Musical: Sunset Boulevard — Adam Fisher
When Joe’s voice echoes through backstage corridors and out into Times Square, when Norma’s whisper turns a hush into drama — that’s Fisher’s work. It’s immersive, it’s seamless, and it's undeniably theatrical.
Best Sound Design of a Play: Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Paul Arditti
This one isn’t even close. Paul Arditti didn’t just design sound for Stranger Things—he dropped you into the Upside Down. From the moment the opening hum vibrates through the theater, you’re on alert. Every creak, ripple, supernatural whisper—it’s meticulously crafted. Paul’s work already swept the Drama Desk, Tony voters have been talking about it, and insiders have flat-out told me he's the name they're checking off.