The 2018-19 Tony Season has certainly been off to a so-so start. We’ve seen more misses than hits with some of the more award-darling type shows yet to open. However, I do think we’ve seen some strong Tony contenders from the shows that have opened thus far. Here’s a rundown of how we think some of these categories might go. (Based on pending eligibility)
Locks: The Ferryman, To Kill a Mockingbird
On the Bubble: Bernhardt/Hamlet, Network, The Waverly Gallery
Likely Left Behind: American Son, The New One, Straight White Men , The Lifespan of a Fact
This year is going to be an extremely crowded field in the Best Play category. Right now, I think The Ferryman and Mockingbird have done enough to score nominations. Network’s star power might be enough for voters to overlook the show’s flaws. However, there are a few shows yet to open that could throw the entire field into a loop. I’m hearing great things about Choir Boy. Also, major star power is coming with King Lear starring Glenda Jackson, Hilary and Clinton starring Laurie Metcalf and Jon Lithgow as well as Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus starring Nathan Lane and Andrea Martin. Then there is Ink, the West End transfer which received rave reviews while playing there. Needless to say, with all of this yet to open, it could be enough for voters to forget The Waverly Gallery and Bernhardt/Hamlet.
Best Revival of a Play
Locks: The Boys in the Band
On the Bubble: Torch Song
According to the Broadway League, it looks like there are only going to be four contenders for the this category. Which means, due to Tony eligibility rules, there will only be three nominees. Even though it will have been a year since it closed, I do expect The Boys in the Band to land multiple nominations including this one. It was roundly praised and given the low number of revivals, I don’t expect it to be left out. However, with big name led productions of True West and All My Sons, the same cannot be said by the good-not great Torch Song.
Locks: The Prom
One the Bubble: The Cher Show
Likely Left Behind: Pretty Woman, King Kong, Head Over Heels, Gettin’ the Band Back Together
A much larger field that I was initially expecting. I’d by lying if I said that the overall musical season has been spectacular thus far. From what we’ve seen, I’d say that The Prom will likely be one of the four nominees we see this June. I don’t know if the “fun” of The Cher Show will be enough to get it a nomination. With Tony-bait shows like Tootsie, Hadestown and even Be More Chill, there won’t be room for any of the others to break into this category. I’m hesitant to list Beetlejuice in here after what I heard about its out-of-town tryout.